Mixi going public in September

Here’s Fukumimi report (via gen kanai). CNET Japan (in Japanese).

Update: According to Nikkei, its valuation based on bookbuilding method is said to be about $ 1.09 billion (let dollar =100 yen for convenience). If we devide it by the number of “friends” (members, I mean), we get $ 218 per friend which in a way represents the value of the company.

As Fukumimi notes that the valuation is crazy, the cost per friend at $218 might be too high, when compared to the case of MySpace deal, to the estimated acquisition cost per friend at $29 ($ 580 m/29 million friends, per Fukumimi) or $5-6 per friend (the same MySpace case, with a bit different approach, $ 580 /100 million friends, per Donna Bogatin who used the number of “friends” of the subsequent year as a denominator via Scott Karp, via Jeff Jarvis).

*MySpace at wikipedia.

While we really don’t know the fair price of aquiring a non-paying customer on the so-called Social Network Services (SNS), MIXI IPO will provide a bases for for the better valuation of it, as both MySpace and YouTube will be valued far more than MIXI in case they’d go public.

Update2: Here is what is called mokuromi-sho (looks like a business plan, 129 pages in total) in pdf in Japanese I’ve found e-trade securities site (etrade.ne.jp). This states the advertising revenue in the seventh period ending March, 2006, was JPY 640,837,000 when its membership reached about 3 million. If I’d use the quick and dirty analysis that Donna Bogatin employed (again, let 100 yen = dollar).

Revenue per “friend”: (1) $2.14 (when divided by 3m)

(2) $1.28 (when divided by 5m)

Cost per “friend”: (1) $363 (when divided by 3m)

(2) $218 (when divided by 5m)

To me it seems out of question. In the field of direct marketing where I live, we often use what is called media ratio (in Japanese, many people call it メディアレーション ? or media rehshon), which is simply [product revenue]/[media cost], the measure of evaluating the direct response media. In my personal opinion,

a) “Excellent” when it is >1.0

b) “Pretty good” when it is in the range of 0.5 -1.0

c) There is still a “hope” when 0.1-0.5

Again, out of question, otherwise.

Oh I was ignoring the revenue from job matching advertising business. If we add part on the revenue side, the revenue becomes JPY 1,893,452,000 (USD 18,934,520 at JPY 100/USD). The revenue per friend now becomes:

Revenue per “friend”: (1) $6.3 (when divided by 3m)

(2) $3.8 (when divided by 5m)

Dividing each by respective cost per friend of $363 and $ 218 gives the media ratios:

(1) 0.03

(2) 0.01

MIXI account setup

Update^3: Sorry folks

Update^2: Someone, actually one of my maimiku, told me that such mobile mail address restriction applies only to IP address allocated to Japan. Hence no such restrictions to apply otherwise, it seems.

Update: For those who are getting an invitation, make sure you have a valid mobile mail account from one of those Japanese mobile carriers; notably, docomo, au, softbank, tsuka, willcom, etc. Now, mixi requires both your email account and your mobile mail account validated before they will issue a new mixi account. I know they are concerned about security; however, looking at the entire social media landscape from MySpace to facebook, which are getting open at least on the new member acquisition,

I think this move dismisses the potential of the Internet; that is, the potential being that location doesn’t matter and our hobby and interests (I have noted a lot of anime lovers overseas) distributed long tail across cultures around the globe. Mixi spread via word-of-mouth, viral, just like every other successful social media services. Did you know one of the fastest growing nations are China and India? Not Japan, whose population had just started to decline ahead of other advanced nations like Germany, Italy, US, or France. Now it in effect prevents folks overseas from signing up the new account. How sad.

An invitation letter..

MixiAccountSetup1

The profile of the person who invites you..

MixiAccountSetup2

Fill in your profile and apply. This screen shot is the old one. The new one requires your mobile phone mail address right after the PC (or mac) mail account. Both mail addresses will later be validated before activating the new mixi account. That almost means you need to be living in Japan and have a mobile phone with email enabled. Good luck.

MixiAccountSetup3

Return to mixi tutorial . (for those who have joined mixi already.)

After you’ve set up your account, also refer to other operations:

sending a new message

receiving a new message.

creating ashiato cho in your diary

checking ashiato

disjoining Mixi

Update:

I prepared also the Tutorial Home at flickr:

MIXI TUTORIAL HOME